A new issue of the «Far Eastern Studies» N4, 2023 has been released [e-version].
Contents
Politics
Verchenko A.L. Party Diplomacy in China’s Foreign Policy: “CCP Dialogue with the World-2023”
Leshakov P.S., Solovyov A.V. DPRK as a Structural Factor of Regional and Global Security
Gordeeva I.V. The Intensification of the Struggle for Influence in Oceania and the Policy of Japan in the Region
Economics
Kondratov D.I. Prospects for Russian Gas in China
Korneev K.A. Japan’s Energy Policy: Current Challenges and Problems
Dobrinskaya O.A. Japan’s Economic Strategy in India: Issues and Prospects
State and Society
Yankova A.D. Architecture of China’s Cyber Sovereignty Concept: Based on the Reports World Internet Conference “Sovereignty in Cyberspace: Theory and Practice”
Theory and Methodology
Burov V.G. Historical Experience of the Development of Chinese Civilization
Russian Far East
Zabelina I.A. A Study of the Economic Growth Quality in the Eastern Regions of Russia and the Northeastern Regions of China
History
Golovachev V.Ts. “Russia has Come More Than Twice as Nearer to Us”: The 1896 Moscow Treaty in the Chinese Scholars’ Perceptions
Fedorin A.L. “Continuation of the Complete Collection of the Historical Notes of Dai Viet” and Its Unfortunate Fate
Education
Aktamov I.G. The Role of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the Implementation of China’s Educational Policy in Inner Asia
Scientific Events
Blazhkina A.Y., Kvartalova N.L. XXIV International Scientific Conference “China and East Asia: Philosophy, Literature, Culture”
Party Diplomacy in China’s Foreign Policy: “CCP Dialogue with the World-2023”
Alla L. Verchenko
The Chinese Communist Party holds bilateral, regional, international meetings with representatives of the ruling and opposition political parties of the world (“Dialogues”) and considers them as a channel for strengthening the role of Chinese party diplomacy as a part of Chinese diplomacy as a whole, especially towards laying the foundation for building a “Community of the Common Destiny of Mankind”. The “Top Level CCP Dialogue with the World Political Parties” has been held since 2017 and replaced the less ambitious “CCP Dialogue with the World” held in 2014–2016. The leaders of the ruling parties, heads of states and governments began to take part in its work. “Dialogue — 2023”, like all previous meetings, discusses the role of the ruling party and its responsibility for the future of their country and the humanity. The key theme of the current “Dialogue” — “The path to modernization: the responsibility of political parties” was chosen to introduce to the world parties the concepts outlined by the 20th Congress of the CCP. CCP has informed the world parties about Chinese innovative proposals: “Global Modernization” that is a joint development for all mankind and “Global Civilization” that is an idea of respect for different civilizations, recognition of their equality, refusal to impose alien values, intensification of humanitarian exchanges. Xi Jinping t delivered a key speech. The online forum, held on March 15, 2023, was attended by representatives of 500 political parties from 150 countries and regions. New times pose new challenges, and China, moving to a high-tech model, shares its models with the world, at the same time shows willingness to help others in the future development. As during previous “Dialogue” forums, the CCP emphasized its role as a peace-loving major power that concerns for humanity, proposes a plan for collective cooperation in the field of development of human civilization, ways to establish an equitable world order against the systemic crisis of the Western idea of globalization.
DPRK as a Structural Factor of Regional and Global Security
Pavel S. Leshakov
Alexander V. Solovyov
The article analyzes the current internal and external situation of the DPRK as an intermediate outcome of a unique 75-year socio-economic experiment. The DPRK’s nuclear missile program, which has become a means of ensuring security, an instrument of diplomatic bargaining, and an element of its specific international status, sometimes defined as a «small great power,» has made the country the target of unprecedentedly harsh sanctions, both from individual countries and from the international community represented by the UN Security Council. The sanctions, that have seriously crippled the national economy, as well as aggravated its humanitarian situation and international isolation, nevertheless failed to yield the DPRK’s denuclearization. Under these conditions, the country’s leadership focuses on preservation of political stability, even at the expense of improving the welfare of the people, which will predetermine the conservation of the specific economic system that combines directive state management and certain principles of market economy, for a long time.
Declaring unconditional commitment to the development of its nuclear missile program, the DPRK poses a dual threat to strategic stability at the regional and global levels. At the regional level, by undermining the principles of nuclear nonproliferation, the DPRK’s RNP can stimulate the threshold states of the region to develop their nuclear programs. The active promotion of multilateral military-political alliances in the Asia-Pacific region under U.S. patronage makes the prospect of Pyongyang entering strategic arms control negotiations unlikely. At the global level, Pyongyang’s successful opposition to the sanctions regime in the context of growing systemic and structural international contradictions may lead to the degradation of this regime and, as a consequence, to the dangerous dysfunction of the UN as a key international institution.
The Intensification of the Struggle for Influence in Oceania and the Policy of Japan in the Region
Irina V. Gordeeva
The article is devoted to Japan’s policy towards Oceania in the context of the growing confrontation in the region between the coalition of Western powers led by the United States, seeking to maintain and consolidate their dominant positions in Oceania, and China, which is increasingly gaining strength. The Pacific Region, with its important geostrategic position and huge resources, is becoming one of the fronts of the offensive launched by the United States and its allies to strengthen their dominant positions on the world stage. At the same time, China continues its systematic advance in the region, relying on its growing economic power, accumulated large financial assets and steadily increasing technological level. The political, economic, and military aspects of the interaction of the dominant countries in the region with small developing island states, as well as their positions in the context of increased competition and tension between the powers are studied.
Particular attention is paid to Japan’s desire to strengthen relations with the countries of Oceania and search for its place while maintaining close ties with the United States and its allies. Japan and island States have deep historical ties and successfully cooperate in many areas. Security issues, economic and logistical interests of Tokyo play an important role in this cooperation. Extensive multilateral and bilateral mechanisms for interaction with Pacific island countries have been created, relying on which Tokyo secures its interests in the region.
An important role in this situation is played by the position of the Pacific island States, which are increasingly openly declaring their interest in developing relations with all parties, guided primarily by their own interests, the possibilities of obtaining financial and economic assistance to solve the serious problems that have accumulated in the region.
Prospects for Russian Gas in China
Dmitry I. Kondratov
The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market.
It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390–560 billion cubic meters, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022.
During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the XXI century of gas transformation.
In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the long-term dynamics of demand for this energy resource.
The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country’s participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia.
At the same time, the northeastern provinces of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project.
The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.
Japan’s Energy Policy: Current Challenges and Problems
Konstantin A. Korneev
The sixth edition of the Strategic (Basic) Energy Plan until 2030 was published in Japan in October 2021. The primary goal remained the same — to maximize energy independence by reducing purchases of primary energy resources and to increasing the share of renewable energy in the country’s energy balance from 18 % to 36 % relative to 2021 levels. However, these steps are not enough even to reduce purchases of oil, coal and natural gas by about 20% in the coming years. Thus, the issue of restarting the majority of existing nuclear power plants and the construction of new power units come to the fore again, since they are providing most stable energy amidst ongoing market turbulence. Japan has made a lot of efforts to revise the nature of its energy policy in order to find an acceptable balance between abandoning nuclear energy and maintaining basic indicators of energy supply reliability, but these efforts have partly led the country into an “energy impasse” when current demands are partially addressed, but the long-term development of the industry remains a big question. This is especially noticeable given the fact that Japan has made significant commitments to reduce CO2 emissions and achieve economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2050, which requires a revision of many benchmarks and a rethinking of strategic documents. The search for answers to this question is the main purpose of this article.
Japan’s Economic Strategy in India: Issues and Prospects
Olga A. Dobrinskaya
The article is devoted to the characteristic features of Japan’s economic strategy in India. The transformation of the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape has led to Japan’s increasing interest towards India which is now being the most desirable long-term destination for Japanese business. The significance of cooperation with India is determined by its potential of balancing the influence of China, the capacity of the domestic market, production conditions and geographical position, which opens up prospects for creating new value chains in the region of South and Southeast Asia, as well as accessing the markets of Africa and the Middle East. India is also an attractive in terms of human resources, primarily IT specialists. At the same time, economic advancement in India faces a number of problems, including underdeveloped transport and energy infrastructure, lack of transparency in the application of legislation, a confusing taxation system, etc. There are numerous issues that hinder economic cooperation, with trade relations being the «weak link», and some of the announced projects facing difficulties due to a number of economic and political factors.
Tokyo’s strategy is based on an «All Japan» approach that combines public funding and private investment. The strategic importance of India in the context of the implementation of the strategy of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) determines the high level of state involvement in the implementation of economic projects. Japan is a leading ODA donor for India and also one of the main investors in the Indian economy. It is investing to bring India up to the level of infrastructural equipment and technical development that meets the standards of Japanese business. One of the characteristic features of the Japanese strategy is the emphasis on the training of local specialists and managers, which will create the necessary conditions for the transfer of technology and the adoption of the Japanese management model.
Architecture of China’s Cyber Sovereignty Concept (Based on the Reports World Internet Conference “Sovereignty in Cyberspace: Theory and Practice”
Alexandra D. Yankova
Modern China shares the position that national security is impossible without network security. The state builds cyber diplomacy based on the traditional dominants of its foreign policy — inviolability of borders, non-interference, respect for sovereignty. Naturally expanding into the digital space, the last of them has acquired a new form of cyber-sovereignty, become an integral part of the Chinese discursive force and the cornerstone of the PRC’s approach to global Internet governance. Beijing, not satisfied with the current unfair digital world order and concerned about the need to ensure constant control over internal networks for the regime security, advocates institutional reform of the existing system of global cyberspace governance. Over the past two decades, the state has turned from a recipient into a creator and propagandist of cyber norms. The cases of Chinese regulatory entrepreneurship attract an increasing number of supporters, primarily among developing countries. Several major initiatives, including the World Internet Conference, the Community with a Shared Future in Cyberspace, the Digital Silk Road, have become the personification of China’s competitive strategy in this direction. All of them aim to convey to an international audience a concrete message about China’s intention to adhere to cyber sovereignty in all foreign policy affairs and a call to formalize this principle as a confirmation of the state’s right to manage the Internet at their discretion. Based on primary sources, the article attempts to trace the origins of the PRC’s cyber sovereignty concept, analyze its evolution, institutional design, goal setting, content, limitations, and using the construction of an object-oriented architecture to present it as a three levels system, visualized for a better understanding of the links between levels.
Historical Experience of the Development of Chinese Civilization
Vladilen G. Burov
Chinese civilization is one of the oldest. For many centuries, it developed exclusively on its own basis. In the twentieth century, acquaintance with Western civilization led to debates about traditional Chinese values, in which various points of view were expressed, ranging from complete denial to total praise. In recent decades, there has been a gradual realization that the teachings of Confucius and his followers represent a great spiritual wealth. There is a re-evaluation of the teachings of Chinese thinkers of the past. The historical experience of China’s civilizational development contains valuable lessons for Russia.
A Study of the Economic Growth Quality in the Eastern Regions of Russia and the Northeastern Regions of China
Irina A. Zabelina
The article presents an assessment result of the economic growth quality in Eastern regions of Russia and the Northeastern regions of China, performed using the eco-intensity indicator and the colors of growth framework. It is shown that during the period from 2011 to 2021, the level of some types of negative environmental impact decreased in both countries. A comparative analysis of eco-intensity indicates that in 2021, Russia surpassed China in terms of emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides per unit of economic result. Positive trends were noted for these pollutants in China and its Northeastern regions: eco-intensity decreased significantly during the analyzed period. The study of trends in environmental and economic development using the colors of growth system showed that the entire trajectory of development of China and its regions in terms of emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides is in the most prosperous zone (the «green» growth zone). At the same time, some Eastern regions of Russia demonstrate negative dynamics: in some years, «black» growth and/or degrowth were revealed. Calculations have shown that in almost all regions of the East of the Russian Federation from 2011 to 2021, the eco-intensity of waste generation increased; the development trajectories for this type of ecological pressure were mainly in the «black» zones. The results obtained in this study allow us to analyze the ecological and economic trends in the development of regional and national economies and can be used in the process of developing strategic documents, including in the context of cross-border cooperation.
“Russia has Come More Than Twice as Nearer to Us”: The 1896 Moscow Treaty in the Chinese Scholars’ Perceptions
Valentin Ts. Golovachev
Was the 1896 “Moscow Treaty” (“Sino-Russian Secret Treaty”) an unequal one? The Russian assessments of this Treaty, signed by A.B. Lobanov-Rostovsky, S.Y. Witte and Li Hongzhang on May 22.05/03.06.1896, during Li’s visit to celebrate the coronation of Nicholas II in Moscow, is a special topic, already generally explored in our publications. These assessments vary a lot — from negative to generally positive and mixed ones (it was not unequal, had pros and cons for both sides). The positive and mixed assessments are dominating in the domestic studies, which does not mean that this so much disputed topic is terminated in Russian historiography. As for the Chinese historiography, a stereotype exists that almost all Chinese experts perceive and evaluate the “Secret Treaty” purely negatively, as an unequal one. In fact, the conclusions and assessments of the Chinese experts nowadays, just as 120 years ago, are not at all unified or totally negative, but, very like the Russian historiography, contain the whole range of assessments — from negative to positive and the mixed ones. The very existence of this broad spectrum, along with the updating and expansion of concrete arguments, indicates that the discussions about the essence of the “Secret Treaty”, as much as the assessment of Li Hongzhang’s actions are still far from being completed in China’s historiography. The reason to issue this article was a bibliographic review of Chinese studies on the China-Eastern Railway (CER) topic, published by Ma Weiyun and Cui Jianping, a pair of prominent Harbin historians, in the “Discussion Tribune” Section of the Russian “Problems of the Far East” Journal (2021, No. 6).
“Continuation of the Complete Collection of the Historical Notes of Dai Viet” and Its Unfortunate Fate
Andrei L. Fedorin
The text of the “Continuation of the complete collection of the historical notes of Dai Viet” available for us is a fundamental source of the history of ancient and medieval Vietnam covers the events in this country from ancient times to 1675. Meanwhile the canonical text of this chronicle, distributed in the form of xylographs in the late 18 century, brought the description up to 1740. However, as a result of a significant revision of its final part carried out for political reasons under the first emperors of the Nguyen dynasty (1802–1945) the canonical text was drastically reduced, and the description of the last 65 years (1676–1740) was excluded from it altogether. At the same time, not a single complete xylograph of the original text of the chronicle, as it was formed in the 18th century, has reached our time. The article describes the history of the creation of this chronicle, its fundamental differences from Chinese sources, which certainly served as a model for it, primarily by highlighting its didactic function as the main one. As a result, this «unified history textbook» has always been an important part in the training system of Vietnam’s medieval bureaucracy, its text was very stable and changed only for political reasons (during the transition to power of a new dynasty), most often due to significant reduction. This article is devoted to the questions of how is it possible to at least partially restore the original version of the source and his lost text for the period from 1676 to 1740.
The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in the Implementation of China’s Educational Policy in Inner Asia
Innokentii G. Aktamov
The article is devoted to a brief overview of the main trends in educational cooperation between Russia, China and Mongolia. The focus of the research is the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a special cultural and educational space within which interaction in the field of higher education is implemented. Based on statistical data, it was revealed that students from Mongolia and the regions of Siberia and the Russian Far East represent the overwhelming majority in the proportion of foreign students in the region. The main «attraction factors» are scholarship programs at various levels — the Government of the People’s Republic of China, the People’s Government of Inner Mongolia and universities. A significant incentive is the allocation of special quotas for applicants from Mongolia, as well as partner universities from Russia. The universities of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region over the past 15 years have become one of the key centers for attracting foreign students from Mongolia and the Russian regions of Inner Asia. The Chinese leadership considers Inner Mongolia as an important region for the implementation of domestic national policy. In recent years, this region has played an important role in building relations with Mongolia and Russia in the context of China’s global initiatives and humanitarian cooperation in general. Quite possibly that in the future Inner Mongolia will fulfill strategic tasks both from the point of view of domestic policy and from the implementation of the PR China’s foreign policy.