Far Eastern Studies N2, 2024

The Contents of the «Far Eastern Studies» N2, 2024 [e-version].



Kistanov V.O. Japan—US—South Korea Triangle: How Strong Will the New Alliance Be?

Morozov Yu.V., Panchenko N.Yu. The Climate Agenda in Bilateral Relations between China and the United States

Ulyanova M.Yu. Mechanisms of Scientific and Technical Cooperation between Russia and China in the New Era

Petrovskiy V.E. Prospects for BRICS Expansion and Development: Academic Discussions in China


Akimov A.V. Dynamics of the Physical Volume of Industrial Production in China in 2010–2022

Ostrovskii A.V. The PRC Economy: New Horizons of its Development till 2025

Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A. Comparative Analysis of the Far East Countries’ Sovereign Debt Risk

Dai Hui, Sereda A.V. China’s Foreign Aid Transformation: Driver and Path Analysis

State and Society

Yudina T.N., Yao Lindun. The Rise of China as a Cyber Superpower


Ershov D.N. Corporate Climate Strategies and Financing the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy in Japan

Leksyutina Ya.V. China in Central Asia’s “Green” Energy Sector


Zavyalova O.I. Information Technology and Chinese Characters

Zhang Xiaoling. The Revival of the Great Tea Road between China, Russia and Mongolia: a New Review from China

Scientific Events

Kudakaev R.F. Annual All-Russian Conference “Modern Chinese State”

Book Reviews

Vinogradov A.V. Book Review: 任晓: 中国国际关系学史 [Ren Xiao. The History of Chinese Studies of International Relations]. 北京. 商务印书馆, 2022年. 424页

Japan—US—South Korea Triangle: How Strong Will the New Alliance Be?

Valerii O. Kistanov

The article examines the process of recreating and strengthening the Japan-US-South Korea geopolitical triangle, as well as its international role in the Asia-Pacific region. This military-political alliance was formed by the United States in the context of its confrontation with the USSR in the Asia-Pacific region during the first Cold War. Then the trilateral alliance was incomplete, since Japan and South Korea, through their bilateral security treaties, were closed to the United States, and did not carry out direct military cooperation between themselves. After the end of this war and the collapse of the Soviet Union, this geopolitical structure lost its relevance. The escalated problems of Japan’s colonial rule on the Korean peninsula in the first half of the 20th century actually kept political relations between Japan and South Korea in a state of tension until very recently. Now, in the conditions of the Cold War 2, Washington, with the support of Tokyo and Seoul, intends to revive and use this triangle as part of its Indo—Pacific strategy, but this time to contain, first, China’s gaining economic and military power, as well as eliminate the so-called nuclear missile threat from North Korea. An important role in the institutionalization of the trilateral alliance was played by the summit of the United States, Japan and South Korea, held on August 18, 2023 at the residence of the American presidents at Camp David. The factors of increasing the role of the triangle in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy are the coming to power in South Korea in 2022 of Yoon Suk Yeol who took a conciliatory position towards Japan, as well as Tokyo’s course to accelerate the build-up of its military power and acquire offensive potential. The reanimation of the Japan-US-South Korea triangle at Camp David contributed to the intensification of negotiations on the creation of a parallel triangle in Northeast Asia consisting of China, Japan and South Korea in order to establish economic and political cooperation between the three countries. At the same time, it is possible that the continued instability of the Tokyo-Seoul line may once again become the «Achilles heel» of the Japan-US-South Korea triangle.

Climate Agenda in Bilateral Relations between China and the United States

Yuri V. Morozov
Natalia Y. Panchenko

The relevance of the article is due to the ongoing climate changes on the planet, the negative consequences of which threaten the international community. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis: the efforts of the United Nations, China and the United States in combating climate change on the planet; the evolution of relations on the climate agenda between China and the United States; and the prospects for the development of climate policy by Beijing and Washington. To achieve these goals, the authors used the following research methods: observations, generalizations, abstractions, induction and deduction, formalization and concretization, structural deductive and comparative analyses of published materials on the topic of the article. These research methods allowed the authors of the article to come to the following conclusions. China and the United States have established a comprehensive regulatory framework to combat the negative effects of climate change, which constantly improved. Thanks to its economic power of the United States, as well as its initiatives in the IMF, the Arctic Council and the G-20 and G-7 aimed at the use of clean energy by economically developed countries in various fields of their application, Washington is an informal leader among developed powers. Beijing actively cooperates with developing countries, which it helps to neutralize the threats associated with climate change. Therefore, he informally heads them. In the field of cooperation between China and the United States on the climate agenda its cooperation constant difficulties, mainly related to the violation of the «red lines» in the political and economic areas of its rivalry in the international arena. However, the governments of both States still finding a common platform to maintain cooperation on climate change issues. At the same time, the Chinese side links cooperation in this area with the improvement of general relations between Washington and Beijing.

Mechanisms of Scientific and Technical Cooperation between Russia and China in the New Era

Maria Yu. Ulyanova

The obvious rapprochement between the two countries of Russia and China is dictated by the historical course of events and the changing geopolitical situation in the world Russia and China are conducting activities to develop new strategies for the technological development of the two countries. The strengthening of existing and the formation of new innovative models and forms of scientific and technical interaction is taking place based on existing experience and taking into account the sanctions policy of the West. The current stage of Russian-Chinese relations, according to Russian President V. Putin, characterizes Russian-Chinese cooperation as “a partnership looking to the future”. Speaking about Russian-Chinese scientific and technological cooperation at the current stage, Chinese President Xi Jinping notes that China and Russia, being responsible global and influential scientific and technological powers, need comprehensive and multi-level cooperation and exchange between the scientific and technical circles of the two countries to reform the system and building a “community with a common destiny for humanity.” The article examines the main mechanisms of scientific and technical cooperation between Russia and China that have developed at the present stage. Particular attention is paid to programs and tools for the implementation of national scientific and innovative development of China. Models that can become effective channels for practical scientific and technical progress in Russia and China are considered. An overview of the general situation is provided that allowed China to quickly make a breakthrough in the development of fundamental research, systematization of the structure and management of the work of RECs, research institutes, research projects, etc. according to the operating principle of the Soviet State Committee for Science and Technology, as well as modern methods and approaches, tools and mechanisms of bilateral interactions.

Prospects for BRICS Expansion and Development: Academic Discussions in China

Vladimir E. Petrovskiy

Currently, the questions of BRICS expansion and development is attracting priority attention not only from governments and politicians of interested countries, but also from the scientific and expert community, including in China. The author analyzed the interpretation of the problems of expansion and development of the association in the works and speeches of Chinese scientists and experts of recent times, including the evolution and prospects of the BRICS+ format proposed by China. Chinese scientists and experts believe that a balanced approach should be taken to the geoeconomic and geopolitical aspects of the expansion and development of BRICS, based on the fact that the association is not so much anti-Western as it is aimed at reforming the existing system of global governance (although this issue is controversial in the Chinese academic community character). To become the basis of a new world order, BRICS must offer other countries new development paradigms, including the formation of a new institutional environment for modernizing the world economy, the creation of an alternative format for its development to the West, new regional blocs and platforms. These development paradigms, as China believes, can be implemented within the BRICS+ format, which, with the beginning of a new wave of BRICS expansion, has by no means lost its relevance, opening up various options for the BRICS member countries to interact with other actors in the world economy. After the start of a new wave of BRICS expansion in 2023 and on the eve of the Russian BRICS presidency in 2024, it is also very important to compare approaches to the main issues of BRICS expansion and development in Russia and China.

Dynamics of the Physical Volume of Industrial Production in China in 2010–2022

Alexander V. Akimov

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy should generate structural shifts associated with the saturation of some markets and the growth of others. Chinese statistics provide an opportunity to observe the dynamics of natural indicators that clearly demonstrate the state of production and markets. The article examines the production of coal, cement, electricity, mineral fertilizers, edible vegetable oil, fabrics, household refrigerators, automobiles, steel smelting, production of metal-cutting machines, cell phones, integrated circuits for 2010–2022. The dynamics of changing trends in the industry of the People’s Republic of China is analyzed. The analysis of the time series of industrial production in physical terms demonstrates that several groups of industries exist and develop simultaneously in Chinese industry, in which various trends are observed. There is saturation in the industries building infrastructure, but also continued growth in their modern part (electricity), or sectors aimed for new markets (coal mining, cement industry, steel production). Industries operating primarily for the domestic market are experiencing saturation and even a decline in production (mineral fertilizers, edible vegetable oil). In traditionally export industries, there is a change of leaders (reduction of fabric production). New industries are developing, working for the domestic market and exports (growth in automobile production, saturation of the household refrigerator market). In the branches of the investment complex, the technological basis is being replaced (robots replace metalworking machine-tools). The industries of the most modern electronic technologies are developing rapidly, there is saturation in the production of mobile phones, and the rapid growth is on in the production of integrated circuits. In general, China’s industry operates in three large and relatively independent groups of markets: the markets of developed countries, the growing domestic market, as well as the markets of developing countries.

The PRC Economy: New Horizons of its Development till 2025

Andrei V. Ostrovskii

The article analyses problems of China’s social and economic development in the period of the 14-th Five Year Plan (2021–2025) by the materials, which were published in October, 2022 at the XX Congress of the CPC and in March, 2023 at the First Session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) of the 14-th Convocation. This article sums up the social and economic results of 2022, when economic growth rates were much less than in the period of economic reforms at the end of the XX century and in the beginning of the XXI century because the COVID-19 epidemic and evident decrease of the world economic development. Never the less a lot of economic indices of China proved to be higher than all over the world, and now China is one of the world economic leaders. The First Session of the NPC planned quite realistic goals of social and economic development of China for 2023. The author considers, if China fulfills its tasks by the end of the 14-th Five Year Plan, it will strengthen its economic potential and promote living standards of the Chinese population.

Comparative Analysis of the Far East Countries’ Sovereign Debt Risk

Igor A. Balyuk
Marina A. Balyuk

Due to the changing geopolitical landscape, Russia has been forced to actively establish new international relationships to create conditions for the sustainable development of its national economy and enhance its sovereignty. To promote the development of Russia’s Asian regions, it is particularly significant to strengthen cooperation with rapidly growing Asian countries classified as part of the Far East. Sovereign debt risk is an essential consideration when drafting a plan for long-term partnership. This article analyses public debt burdens and determines the level of sovereign debt risk of the Far East countries, which can be considered as current and potential economic partners for Russia. The study showed that the countries of the Far Eastern region — potential partners of Russia have a moderate level of sovereign debt burden. While the highest debt risk was revealed in Mongolia, taking into account the relatively low level of national debt in absolute terms and the downward trend in the public debt to GDP ratio, the overall situation can be considered as manageable. Japan is the most problematic among the countries of the Far Eastern region in terms of the level of sovereign debt risk. But the paradox lies in the fact that all existing debt monitoring systems are focused on a detailed analysis of developing countries and countries with economies in transition, but within the current model of the world order the growth of debt dependence in the developed countries, which set the rules of the game, is not considered as one of the global problems. The rising debt dependence is a global problem that requires comprehensive, coordinated action from the international community. Appropriate mechanisms to manage the global economy and finance in a manner based on the most countries’ interests in the multipolar world should be developed and implemented by G20+ as the most significant international organization today.

China’s Foreign Aid Transformation: Driver and Path Analysis

Dai Hui
Aleksei V. Sereda

This article examines the process of development of the state policy of the People’s Republic of China in the sphere of international assistance to developing states. In its development, this policy has passed through three stages, which can be conditionally characterized as a gradual transition from political assistance through commercial support to assistance in the role of a «responsible state». At present, China’s policy is undergoing a transformation: China’s role has changed from «local partner» to «aid provider» and the establishment of a «new development aid system» has become the core of the development cooperation program. The paper investigates the reasons for these changes and also looks in more detail at the institutional aspects of the transformation underway, which include, among others, the establishment of the National Agency for International Development Cooperation in 2018. It is concluded that in the context of the ongoing changes, the practical aspects of public policy implementation are of particular importance: in particular, it is necessary to ensure a greater degree of transparency in management decision-making, as well as to establish a channel of direct communication with the final recipients of aid — foreign organizations and citizens. It is noted that the concept of «community of common destinies of mankind» makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of international aid in the context of multipolarity of the emerging world order, while the existing Western models of international aid providing do not take into account the objectively occurring global changes. Successful resolution of these issues will not only meet China’s changed role in the international arena, but also contribute significantly to its domestic economic and social development.

The Emergence of China as a Cyber Superpower

Tamara N. Yudina
Lindun Yao

The article is devoted to the emergence of China as a cybernetic superpower and its foundations in the context of the characteristics of Chinese digitalization, the digital economy (“digital economy”), as well as the stages of its development. This process covers the period from 2014, when Xi Jinping announced the emergence of China as a cyber power, to the present. The process of the formation of China as a cyber superpower goes in parallel with the emergence of the PRC as an economic superpower. This means that the digital economy as an economy of a new technological order (or a new technological generation) can only develop effectively with the parallel effective development of the real sector of the economy, producing real and not virtual goods (goods and services), based on a new innovative model of economic management. This fundamental conclusion is the main result of our study. The cybernetic revolution, as well as economic globalization and global digitalization, as two parallel megatrends that give a cumulative effect, resulted in a post-industrial economy in the world, as well as initially the United States as a technological power. At the new stage of economic globalization and global digitalization, as well as the post-industrial economy, there is technological competition between the United States and China and even a technological war unleashed by the United States for technological leadership. Special attention in the article is paid to tectonic changes in the global digital economy, when the so-called. “artificial intelligence” is becoming a meaningful technology, the main way to achieve the country’s competitiveness. It is “artificial intelligence” that becomes the criterion for determining which country will become a de facto cyber leader, a superpower. The authors of the article consider the second result of their research to be scientific proof that China has sufficient potential to become a cyber superpower.

Corporate Climate Strategies and Financing the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy in Japan

Dmitry N. Ershov

The article analyzes the current challenges and transformation of Japan’s strategic approaches to financing the transition to low-carbon development at the national and corporate levels. Commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris climate agreement have been strengthened in 2022 in anticipation of rapid growth in electricity generation from renewable energy sources. At the same time, real results lag behind the stated goals, and previously introduced green financing instruments are insufficient. This makes it necessary to attract funding to sectors of the economy that do not fall into the “green” category, since they are difficult to decarbonize and cannot be expected to reduce emissions in the short term (hard-to-abate), but may become promising in the future when they are developed relevant technologies. Funding and development of such technologies and sectors can create the preconditions for achieving a low-carbon development trajectory. An analysis of the development of strategic documents in the field of national climate policy is presented and the progress of financing the transition to a low-carbon economy is analyzed. Approaches to combating greenwashing, as well as the development of the securities market, are briefly commented on. Due to the limited natural energy resources and the island position of the country, the course towards decarbonization is natural. Regulation is generally evolving consistently, covering sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, in line with the international climate agenda and taking into account national interests. At the present stage, Japan is faced with problems of attracting investors, improving financing mechanisms and increasing confidence in it on the part of financial market participants. Further research will show what results have been achieved along this path.

China in Central Asia’s “Green” Energy Sector

Yana V. Leksyutina

Over the past few years, China has been increasingly active in promoting solar, wind, small hydropower and other clean technologies (from electric vehicles to smart grids) in Central Asia, where demand for a green transformation is high and the potential for clean energy is enormous. Beijing’s involvement in the development of the renewable energy industry in the region is intended to strengthen China’s international image as a responsible great power promoting the green transition, promote the implementation of Chinese rules, norms and standards in the field of clean energy, and expand the export opportunities of Chinese manufacturers of green equipment and technologies (including the so-called “three new products”— photovoltaic products, electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries), open up new opportunities to meet China’s energy needs. The article focuses on cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in such areas as the development of solar and wind energy. The article demonstrates the interest convergence of the parties in the development of clean energy, determines the role, scale and forms of China’s participation in the promotion of solar and wind energy in the region.It is concluded that at the present stage, China’s role in financing solar and wind energy projects in the region is limited (especially in comparison with the scale of financing coming from multilateral development banks and national development and international cooperation agencies of Western countries), while the presence of Chinese companies as contractors and equipment suppliers in the construction of solar and wind power plants in Central Asia is very significant.

Information Technology and Chinese Characters

Olga I. Zavyalova

Already in ancient China, philologists started compiling the lists that comprised thousands of characters. The task of creating such lists for various purposes is still relevant in the epoch of information technology and high literacy rates. New words are regularly appearing in the Chinese language, both neologisms and loanwords. The authorities and the Chinese society as a whole show a growing interest in traditional culture and the classical texts of various periods. In modern publications, there are more and more elements from Ancient Chinese and its successor, the Classical written language Wenyan. Due to all these processes, the number of different characters in the present day texts is constantly increasing. New graphs are not created, however, they use those characters, which usually represented in the past or still represent this or that monosyllabic word or a morpheme in disyllabic and polysyllabic words. On the one hand, any characters can be entered on computers with the help of the official Romanized Hanyu Pinyin alphabet or even with the help of the voice input. Modern Chinese, especially the younger generation, not very often write texts by hand. As a result, there is a concern in the Chinese society that the same information technology, and in particular artificial intelligence, will eventually decrease the literacy level even of the educated generation. On the other hand, in the wave of the revival of traditional culture, Chinese intellectuals proposed to return those original variants of characters that were abolished in the People’s Republic of China in the 1950s and the 1960s.

The Revival of the Great Tea Road between China, Russia and Mongolia: a New Review from China

Zhang Xiaoling

The object of this study is the Great Tea Route, which operated from the 17th to the 20th centuries and covered large areas of China, Mongolia and Russia. Today, the original route of the Great Tea Road no longer exists in its former form, however, its influence continues to this day. The lines of the tea road largely coincide with the main route of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, which, in turn, is an important part of such projects as the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), One Belt — One Road «. The revival of this road helps strengthen mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation, cultural exchanges and trade and economic ties between regions. The author set a goal to explore the current state and directions of development of the tea road. The history of the formation and prospects for the revival of the ancient route are considered within the framework of the creation of joint projects “SREB” and “Economic Corridor China — Mongolia — Russia”. Thanks to the efforts of the governments of the three countries, representatives of the academic community and the public, it was possible to reach an agreement to submit an application to include the Great Tea Road on the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage List. In addition, key areas of trilateral cooperation were analyzed. The practical significance of the work lies on the fact that it introduces the scientific community to the latest achievements, results of work, as well as new measures taken by the Chinese side to revive the ancient path. Particular attention is paid to the prospects and key areas of cooperation within the framework of the revival of the Great Tea Road.

Annual All-Russian Conference “Modern Chinese State”

Rodion F. Kudakaev

Book Review: 任晓: 中国国际关系学史 [Ren Xiao. The History of Chinese Studies of International Relations]. 北京. 商务印书馆, 2022年. 424页.

Andrey V. Vinogradov